Plan
integral de gestión de riesgos para fortalecer planificación territorial
resiliente en el cantón Quevedo, Provincia de Los Ríos Ecuador
Plano
abrangente de gestão de riscos para fortalecer o planeamento territorial
resiliente no cantão de Quevedo, província de Los Ríos, Equador
David
Francisco Sánchez Aguas
Dino
Marcello Brambilla Serra
Milton
Rafael Maridueña Arroyave
Luz
Marina Bejarano Ospina
Abstract
The study aimed to
design a comprehensive risk management plan to strengthen territorial planning
and urban resilience in Quevedo canton, Ecuador. A mixed methodological
approach was applied, combining geospatial analysis using geographic
information systems, community data collection, regulatory review, and the
implementation of operational instruments based on the Incident Command System.
Flood and landslide susceptibility maps were developed, identifying critical
zones with high population exposure. The results showed that floods and
landslides represented the predominant threats, especially in urban areas near
water bodies and in sectors characterized by unplanned growth. Additionally,
the analysis allowed the estimation of distances and travel times to safe
zones, providing technical inputs for optimizing evacuation routes. Community
strengthening strategies were incorporated through structured training
processes, enabling the transformation of vulnerabilities into local
capacities. The study concluded that effectively integrating risk management
into land-use planning instruments significantly improves local governance,
reduces exposure to hazards, and promotes safer and more sustainable urban
development.
Keywords: risk_management,territorial_planning, urban_resilience,
floods, Quevedo.
Resumen
El estudio tuvo como objetivo diseñar un plan
integral de gestión de riesgos orientado a fortalecer la planificación
territorial y la resiliencia urbana en el cantón Quevedo, Ecuador. Se aplicó un
enfoque metodológico mixto que combinó análisis geoespacial mediante sistemas
de información geográfica, levantamiento de información comunitaria, revisión
normativa e implementación de instrumentos operativos basados en el Sistema
Comando de Incidentes. Se elaboraron mapas de susceptibilidad a inundaciones y movimientos
en masa, identificándose zonas críticas con alta exposición poblacional. Los
resultados evidenciaron que las inundaciones y deslizamientos constituyeron las
amenazas predominantes del territorio, con especial concentración en áreas
urbanas próximas a cuerpos hídricos y sectores de crecimiento desordenado.
Asimismo, el análisis permitió estimar tiempos y distancias hacia zonas
seguras, aportando insumos técnicos para la optimización de rutas de
evacuación. Se incorporaron estrategias de fortalecimiento comunitario mediante
procesos formativos estructurados, lo que permitió transformar vulnerabilidades
en capacidades locales. El estudio concluyó que la integración efectiva de la
gestión de riesgos en los instrumentos de ordenamiento territorial contribuye
significativamente a mejorar la gobernanza local, reducir la exposición a
amenazas y promover un desarrollo urbano más seguro y sostenible.
Palabras Clave: gestión de riesgos, planificación territorial, resiliencia urbana, inundaciones, Quevedo.
Resumo
O estudo teve como objetivo elaborar um plano integral de gestão de
riscos voltado ao fortalecimento do planejamento territorial e da resiliência
urbana no cantão Quevedo, Equador. Foi adotada uma abordagem metodológica
mista, que combinou análise geoespacial por meio de sistemas de informação
geográfica, levantamento de informações comunitárias, revisão normativa e a
implementação de instrumentos operacionais baseados no Sistema de Comando de
Incidentes. Foram elaborados mapas de suscetibilidade a inundações e movimentos
de massa, identificando-se áreas críticas com elevada exposição populacional.
Os resultados evidenciaram que as inundações e os deslizamentos constituíram as
ameaças predominantes do território, com especial concentração em áreas urbanas
próximas a corpos hídricos e em setores de crescimento desordenado. Além disso,
a análise permitiu estimar tempos e distâncias até zonas seguras, fornecendo
subsídios técnicos para a otimização das rotas de evacuação. Foram incorporadas
estratégias de fortalecimento comunitário por meio de processos formativos
estruturados, o que possibilitou transformar vulnerabilidades em capacidades
locais. O estudo concluiu que a integração efetiva da gestão de riscos nos
instrumentos de ordenamento territorial contribui significativamente para a
melhoria da governança local, a redução da exposição a ameaças e a promoção de
um desenvolvimento urbano mais seguro e sustentável.
Palavras-chave: gestão de riscos, planejamento territorial,
resiliência urbana, inundações, Quevedo.
INTRODUCTION
Likewise, the institutional dimension of risk
management plays a particularly relevant role in strengthening local
governance. The existence of clear organizational structures, well-defined
operational protocols, and interinstitutional coordination mechanisms
contributes to improving emergency response capacity and consolidating a
preventive culture within public administration. When these elements are
incorporated transversally into municipal management, they promote more
efficient, transparent, and collective well-being–oriented action.
Community participation represents another
fundamental component in the construction of resilient territories. The
inclusion of local knowledge, historical experiences, and social perceptions of
risk in diagnostic and planning processes strengthens the legitimacy of
interventions and fosters active co-responsibility between citizens and
institutions. In this way, communities cease to be merely recipients of public
policies and become strategic actors in risk reduction and the protection of
their own environment.
The incorporation of technological tools such
as geographic information systems, multivariate spatial analysis, and
territorial modeling adds scientific rigor to the decision-making process.
These tools make it possible to more accurately visualize the spatial
distribution of risk, prioritize interventions, and assess the potential impact
of implemented policies. Altogether, the integration of science, planning,
institutional capacity, and social participation constitutes the foundation for
advancing toward a safer, more sustainable, and socially just model of urban
development.
Comprehensive risk management is conceived as a
systemic process that articulates risk knowledge, risk reduction, and
preparedness for response to adverse events. This approach recognizes that risk
is not solely a natural condition, but rather a social construct derived from
the interaction among hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure (Narváez et al.,
2009). From this perspective, risk management is positioned as a strategic
component of development planning, aimed at protecting lives, livelihoods, and the
sustainability of territories (UNDRR, 2015).
Empirical evidence further demonstrates that
territorial occupation without safety criteria significantly increases
population exposure to hazards such as floods, landslides, and extreme climate
events. Accelerated urbanization processes, informal settlement expansion, and
pressure on fragile ecosystems generate structural vulnerability conditions
that intensify disaster impacts (IPCC, 2020). In this context, territorial
planning assumes an essential preventive role in reducing the generation of new
risks.
Contemporary territorial approaches to risk
management increasingly incorporate cartographic tools, multivariate spatial
analysis, and geographic information systems to understand the spatial
distribution of risk. These methodologies make it possible to identify critical
areas, recognize patterns of hazard concentration, and support technical
decisions regarding land use and infrastructure location (Lavell et al., 2012).
The integration of these tools strengthens the
scientific basis of urban planning. Urban resilience is built through the
coherent articulation of public policies, institutional strengthening, and
effective community participation. Resilient cities develop the capacity to
anticipate, adapt to, and recover from adverse events without compromising
their essential functioning (UNDRR, 2015). This capacity depends not only on
physical infrastructure, but also on the institutional, social, and
organizational capital present within the territory.
From an institutional perspective, risk
management requires clear organizational structures, functional regulatory
frameworks, and effective intersectoral coordination mechanisms. In the
Ecuadorian context, the mainstreaming of risk management within municipal
planning constitutes a legal obligation for decentralized autonomous
governments (COOTAD, 2019; LOOTUGS, 2016). Compliance with this mandate
strengthens local governance and the capacity to anticipate critical scenarios.
The implementation of local risk management
systems also requires clear technical guidelines to guide institutional
planning and operations. The guidelines issued by the National Secretariat for
Risk Management and Emergencies establish the need to strengthen technical
capacities, develop operational instruments, and consolidate functional
structures for risk reduction at the cantonal level (SNGRE, 2022).
Social participation constitutes an essential
component of contemporary risk management models. The incorporation of local
knowledge, historical memory of events, and community perceptions of risk
enables the construction of more realistic diagnoses and more legitimate
proposals. Co-responsibility between citizens and institutions promotes social
appropriation of preventive measures and strengthens the sustainability of
interventions (Lavell et al., 2012).
Consequently, territorial analysis supported by
statistical evidence strengthens data-driven planning. In the Ecuadorian case,
official records show a high recurrence of hydrometeorological events that
affect populations differently according to their location and socioeconomic
conditions (INEC, 2022). The articulation of statistical information, technical
analysis, and institutional planning constitutes a solid basis for advancing
toward safer and more resilient territories.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The
research was conducted using a mixed-methods approach, with a predominantly
descriptive–applied orientation, aimed at generating a technically viable
proposal to strengthen risk management in the Quevedo canton. The
methodological design responded to the need to integrate quantitative evidence
derived from territorial analysis with qualitative information obtained through
community and institutional participation. This combination made it possible to
understand risk not only from its physical dimension, but also from its social,
organizational, and institutional components.
The unit
of analysis corresponded to the cantonal territory of Quevedo, with particular
emphasis on urban and peri-urban parishes that show a higher recurrence of
hydrometeorological events. The study population consisted of institutional
actors linked to risk management, community leaders, and population groups
located in areas of greater exposure. The selection of these actors was based
on criteria of territorial relevance and their significance for the
construction of a comprehensive proposal.
Multiple
complementary techniques were employed for data collection. A documentary
review of territorial planning instruments, current regulations, and official
records of hazardous events was carried out. In parallel, participatory
workshops were conducted with local communities, in which tools such as
community mapping, historical reconstruction of events, and collective analysis
of vulnerabilities were applied. These techniques enabled the incorporation of
local knowledge as a key input for the diagnostic process.
Spatial
analysis constituted a central component of the methodology. Geographic
information systems were used to process topographic, hydrological, land-use,
and population density variables, allowing for the development of
susceptibility maps for floods and mass movements. This cartographic processing
facilitated the identification of critical areas and provided an objective
technical basis for guiding territorial planning and risk management proposals.
In
addition, an operational component oriented toward institutional strengthening
was developed. Based on the diagnostic findings, proposals for response
protocols and interinstitutional coordination mechanisms were designed under
the Incident Command System approach. This methodological component made it
possible to link technical risk analysis with the enhancement of the actual
response capacities of local government and community actors.
Data
analysis was carried out through the triangulation of documentary information,
cartographic results, and participatory findings. This strategy allowed for the
validation of coherence among the different levels of information obtained and
strengthened the consistency of the results. The integration of qualitative and
quantitative techniques contributed to the construction of a methodologically
robust proposal, contextualized to the territory and aligned with the
principles of resilient urban planning..
RESULTS
The main
finding revealed that floods and landslides constituted the most significant
threats to the territory. Cartographic representations were developed to
spatially identify areas of highest susceptibility, particularly in sectors
close to river channels and densely populated urban areas. This analysis made
it possible to understand the territorial distribution of risk and to establish
technical priorities for intervention planning.
In order
to spatially visualize the distribution of risk across the territory, a flood
and mass movement susceptibility map was developed through the processing of
topographic, hydrological, land-use, and population concentration variables.
Figure 1 shows the territorial distribution of areas with the highest levels of
susceptibility, highlighting a significant concentration in sectors near river
channels and in densely populated urban areas, which reinforces the structural
nature of risk in the current configuration of the canton.
Figure 1
Flood and Landslide
Susceptibility Map in the Quevedo Canton
Source: Author’s Own Elaboration [Data obtained from (SINERGY, 2022, p.
13)]
In addition to the geospatial analysis, a
participatory process aimed at strengthening community capacities was
developed. The application of a structured methodology made it possible to
collect historical information on adverse events, identify local perceptions of
risk, and collectively construct basic community.
Table 1 presents a synthesis of the
community-based methodology applied, highlighting the articulation between
training contents, strategic objectives, and expected outcomes in terms of
social empowerment and the strengthening of local risk management.
Table 1
Community-Based
Methodology Applied for Capacity Building
|
Tema |
Contenido |
Duración |
Objetivo |
|
Sensibilización
comunitaria |
Narrativas,
experiencias previas, reflexión colectiva |
4
horas |
Empoderar
sobre la importancia del manejo adecuado del riesgo |
|
Perfil
histórico |
Construcción
de calendarios y matrices de eventos |
4
horas |
Generar
información local sobre niveles de riesgo |
|
Figuras
de amenazas |
Elaboración
participativa de mapas locales |
4
horas |
Visualizar
peligros existentes según registros históricos |
|
Recursos
y capacidades |
Identificación
comunitaria de fortalezas |
4
horas |
Ubicar
recursos estratégicos del territorio |
|
Plan
de acción |
Diseño
del plan comunitario de respuesta |
4
horas |
Generar
procedimientos operativos locales |
Source:
Author’s Own Elaboration
The results confirm that risk management cannot
be addressed solely from a reactive perspective focused on emergency response
after an event has occurred. The evidence obtained shows that territories
incorporating preventive criteria into their planning processes exhibit greater
capacity to reduce exposure and mitigate the impacts of hazards. This approach
reinforces the idea that anticipation constitutes a fundamental principle for
territorial sustainability.
The integration of hazard cartography with
community capacity-building processes has proven to be an effective strategy
for constructing territorial resilience. Spatial analysis provides technical
rigor for the identification of critical areas, while social participation
strengthens the appropriation of preventive measures. This articulation between
technical knowledge and local expertise promotes more legitimate, inclusive,
and operational risk management.
Likewise, urban planning based on technical
criteria allows public investment to be directed toward priority areas,
optimizing the use of limited resources. When decisions regarding
infrastructure, urban facilities, and basic services consider information
derived from risk analysis, the effectiveness of public policies increases. In
this way, territorial planning is consolidated as a key instrument for reducing
structural vulnerabilities.
These findings are consistent with
international approaches that promote risk governance as a central component of
sustainable development. Risk management ceases to be an isolated function of
specific technical units and becomes a cross-cutting responsibility of public
institutions. This vision fosters intersectoral coordination and the
strengthening of organizational capacities across different levels of
government.
Furthermore, the results show that building
urban resilience requires continuous processes rather than isolated
interventions. The combination of technical diagnosis, institutional
strengthening, and community participation generates more favorable conditions
for sustaining preventive actions over time. In this way, comprehensive risk
management is consolidated as a structural axis of safe and sustainable
territorial development.
The study
demonstrates that the design and implementation of a comprehensive risk
management plan constitutes a strategic tool for strengthening territorial
planning in urban contexts characterized by high exposure to
hydrometeorological hazards. The integration of technical, social, and
institutional approaches makes it possible to overcome traditional reactive
logics and move toward preventive models oriented to territorial
sustainability.
The
results confirm that the incorporation of geospatial analysis, community-based
participatory processes, and structured operational protocols significantly
improves institutional and social capacity to anticipate, respond to, and adapt
to emergency scenarios. This methodological articulation fosters a more
comprehensive understanding of risk and contributes to evidence-based public
decision-making.
Furthermore,
the effective articulation between risk management and territorial planning
instruments enables the progressive reduction of population exposure, guides
the location of critical infrastructure, and promotes safer urban development.
Risk management ceases to be an isolated component and becomes consolidated as
a cross-cutting axis of local planning.
The
analysis allows us to conclude that the construction of territorial resilience
is a systemic, dynamic, and long-term process that requires technical
continuity, sustained political will, and active citizen participation. Its
consolidation depends on the capacity of local governments to institutionalize
risk management as a permanent public policy.
REFERENCES
COOTAD. (2019). Código Orgánico de Organización Territorial, Autonomía y Descentralización. Asamblea Nacional del Ecuador.
INEC.
(2022). Anuario de estadísticas de gestión de riesgos y emergencias en el
Ecuador. Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Censos.
IPCC. (2020). Climate change and
disaster risk management. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Lavell, A., Narváez, L., Pérez, G., & Maskrey, A. (2012). La gestión del riesgo de desastres: Un enfoque basado en procesos sociales. Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales.
LOOTUGS. (2016). Ley Orgánica de Ordenamiento Territorial, Uso y Gestión de Suelo. Registro Oficial del Ecuador.
Narváez, L., Lavell, A., & Pérez, G. (2009). La gestión del riesgo de desastres: Un enfoque basado en procesos sociales. Secretaría General de la Comunidad Andina.
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UNDRR. (2015). Marco de Sendai para la reducción del riesgo de desastres 2015–2030. Oficina de las Naciones Unidas para la Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres.