Evaluando la escalabilidad y el impacto sistémico de las políticas públicas conductuales

Resumen

This study examines the evolution of behavioral public policies from specific interventions known as nudges to structural approaches or budges, with an emphasis on their scalability and systemic impact. Through a mixed methodological design that integrates systematic review, analysis of emblematic cases, and reanalysis of previous meta-analyses, the limitations of nudges when operating in isolation are evident, in contrast to the greater effectiveness of budges when articulated with fiscal, regulatory, or administrative instruments. The findings reveal that scalability depends on contextual factors such as political support, integration with pre-existing systems, and institutional technical capacity, elements that mitigate the scale penalty identified in literature. Statistical analysis shows that nudges tend to be confined to local implementations, while budgets more often achieve national expansion with less loss of effectiveness. Likewise, the case study confirms that the success of scaling up responds less to behavioral design itself than to its insertion into consolidated political and administrative structures. Consequently, it is proposed that the future of behavioral policies lies in their transition toward integrated interventions capable of addressing complex public problems. This framework not only transcends the dichotomy between nudges and traditional regulations but also proposes their complementarity to enhance sustainability and large-scale impact. It is concluded that the true promise of behavioral science lies in their structural incorporation into governance, which makes it possible to generate significant and lasting transformations in society.